Hurricane Dorian threatens the Bahamas, could spare Florida

Hurricane Dorian, now Category 4 on a scale of 5, was approaching Saturday in a hugely threatening way to the Bahamas but could save Florida.

According to the latest forecast from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC), Dorian is expected to continue westward over the weekend before diving north along the shores of the Sunshine State.

“A lot of movement, very difficult to predict,” summed up US President Donald Trump in a tweet, noting that Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina would likely be on the front line mid-week ahead.

According to the NHC, the hurricane hit Sunday the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco, in northwestern Bahamas. “Devastating winds” are to be expected, he warned.

“People have been preparing since Wednesday,” Yasmin Rigby, who lives in Freeport, Grand Bahama, told AFP that memories of hurricanes Frances and Jeanne (2004) and Wilma (2005) were still very much alive in the world. minds.

– “Be careful!” –

Prime Minister Hubert Minnis has called for mobilization. “Those who do not want to evacuate put themselves in great danger, I conjure you: do not try to brave the hurricane”.

“People are worried about a rising water, everything is so flat in the Bahamas,” said Lucy Worboys, resident of the capital, Nassau. The return of her children, she explains, was postponed from Monday to Wednesday, possibly Thursday.

Donald Trump, who canceled the trip to Poland this weekend, followed Saturday the evolution of the situation since his golf in Virginia, on the banks of the Potomac, before joining Camp David for the evening. “It's one of the most powerful hurricanes (…) for decades, be careful!” He said.

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency in his state. “The strength and unpredictability of the storm compels us to prepare for all scenarios,” he said.

The state of emergency had already been declared in Florida and in a dozen counties in the state of Georgia. This measure makes it possible to better mobilize the public services of the State and to resort if necessary to the federal aid.

– “Get ready” –

If a form of relief prevailed in Miami, residents remained cautious and the city's distribution of sandbags to fight the floods continued.

Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has urged people to “stay alert”.

“I'm on my guard because it can still evolve, in the 12 or 24 hours before the hurricane reaches the coast, everything can change,” said David Duque, 30. “I live in Florida for 15 years, better to prepare than to wait without doing anything”.

Florida, consisting mainly of a peninsula in the southeastern United States, is on the front line of the hurricane season every year.

With a very flat relief, the coastline is particularly threatened by rising water. The center of the land is also characterized by low altitudes. For the inhabitants, the main threat is therefore floods.

– Emergency state –

The latest projections remove the prospect of major damage at the resort of West Palm Beach where Mr. Trump has his famous golf club Mar-a-Lago, which he calls his “Winter White House”.

This geographic proximity provided the former Prime Minister of Canada the opportunity for a spike to the Republican billionaire. “I'm dreaming of a frontal (hurricane) strike against Mar-a-Lago,” Kim Campbell said, recalling that Trump denied climate change.

“Mar-a-lago can handle itself, it's a very powerful place, and what worries me is the state of Florida,” said the US president on Friday night.

According to a relief coordinator, 12,000 soldiers are currently in Florida pending the arrival of Dorian.

Customs Duties, Stock Market … Donald Trump's obsessions

Donald Trump's negotiators find the president in the Oval office. Just disembarked from the plane that brings them back 1st August of Beijing, Robert Lighthizer (Commerce) and Steven Mnuchin (Treasury) admit that they have done white cabbage: the Chinese are inflexible. Trump listens to them, displeased. And drop the chopper: “Tariffs”. The meeting then lasts nearly two hours, all advisers, with the exception of protectionist Peter Navarro, formally advising a further increase in tariffs.

Trump does not stop. “Tariffs” it will be. Because Trump has always been a “tariff man”. In his mind, the trade deficits are a sign that America is being “scammed” and “ridiculed” by partners who “laugh at his back” of his “stupidity”.

Vision cantilever

From one decade to the next, the words are exactly the same. In 2011, he details what he would say in Beijing if he was elected president: “Listen, son of p …, we will tax you at 25%! Twelve years ago, about Japan: “We have a deficit of 100 billion dollars, they do the wrong thing, we do not trade with them anymore – we win at the seams. It's easy. Once installed at the White House, he repeats: “Trade wars are good and easy to win. For the real estate developer, in commercial relations there is only winner and loser, and the worst failure is to “get scammed”. Some even go back to his childhood to explain this obsession, the resentment he has long had to be ignored or taken seriously. It does not matter if his vision is at odds with the economic reality.

Tariffs have never saved American industries in decline, and they can cause immense damage. The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, which had taxed about 60% of imports, drove down US trade by 40% and contributed greatly to the Great Depression. Once triggered, the escalation of the trade war is very difficult to defuse “even if it leads to the worst,” notes lawyer Nancy Williams in the Boston University Law Review. Moreover, trade deficits that so obsess Trump “have virtually nothing to do with tariffs or trade restrictions,” says Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, a specialist in international trade. Finally, less than a fifth of Chinese exports go to the US market, which seriously limits the efficiency of tariffs.

All against China

If the narrow protectionism of Trump is an economic aberration, it may also be a brilliant political maneuver. His stubborn and obsessive rhetoric has suddenly resonated in the ears of a worried world of globalization, and it has hit the nail on the head that China does not hide its desire to dominate key sectors of the global economy. . The evolution of minds was fast. On the Republican side, 70 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of China, up from 51 percent just a year ago, according to a Pew Research poll. Democrats side, just listen to the presidential candidates shoot gun on China and trade agreements to understand that the supposed free trade of the Clinton and Obama years is indeed in the past.

The Trump campaign team is determined to ride on its extreme firmness towards China … provided that the other great obsession of the president does not come to get in the way: the stock market prices, that he favors as an economic barometer. Even a Trump steeped in certainties realized that a recession and / or a crash would ruin his chances of reelection. It's not yet the storm, but the clouds are piling up.

Growth worries

After breaking all records of uninterrupted growth – ten years and two months – the world's first economy is suddenly won by anxiety: what if it's over? In the short term, economists estimate the risk of a recession at one in three chances; in the longer term, half of the financial directors surveyed by Duke University believe that the economy will shrink in the second quarter of 2020, and two thirds by the end of 2020 … at the time of the presidential election. Meanwhile, unemployment figures (3.7%) remain historically low. It's hard to talk about a recession when “consumption, in real terms, is growing at a robust annual rate of 3%,” notes Michael Feroli, chief economist at JP Morgan. The experts surveyed by CNBC / Moody's expect a still honorable growth of 2.1% in the third quarter, annual rate. Yes, but … household confidence seems to be weakening, according to the University of Michigan's very reliable index of consumer confidence, which fell to its lowest level in seven months.

Behind their facade optimism, and as the effects of the “whipping” of the tax cuts of late 2017 fade, White House advisers have quietly prepared a “package” to boost the US economy , in case … Among the measures envisaged, a temporary reduction in employee contributions, like that of 2011-2012 decided by Barack Obama.

Philippe Boulet-Gercourt (correspondent in New York)

Appeasement in view of Gafa tax

Despite Donald Trump's threats to heavily tax French wines, which the United States is the largest importer, Paris has held firm. In mid-July, Bruno Le Maire hammered that “France will not give in on its national taxation” digital giants, especially Americans, accused of massive tax evasion. “It was decided, it was voted and it will be applied from 2019.” A few weeks later, the French Minister has rounded off the angles, spending part of the G7 to negotiate with Steven Mnuchin, the US Treasury Secretary, invited in his house in Saint-Pée-sur-Nivelle, a few kilometers from Biarritz.

Result: a compromise that saves the face. Paris does not give up its 3% tax on the turnover of digital groups, but pledges to remove it faster than expected, as soon as a political agreement will be found at the OECD, where 134 countries are negotiating a overhaul of multinational tax rules. When the principles of the reform are finalized – perhaps before the end of the year – France and the United States will implement it through a bilateral agreement, without waiting for the rewriting of international tax conventions. Above all, Paris has committed to refund to digital groups the difference between its tax and the new sample version OECD – for example, Uber would pay a turnover tax in 2019 but would be fully refunded because it does not make a profit .

“There was a lot of nervousness on this famous French digital tax. I think we found a very good agreement, “said Emmanuel Macron. For the French, the weapon of their tax Gafa, even if it is well watered down, will have been useful, pushing the Americans to move on this file. Conversely, the view of the OECD, the attitude of “donor lessons” Frenchies irritates. But after the summit of Biarritz, the atmosphere seems now calmed. T. F.

Donald Trump's negotiators find the president in the Oval office. Just disembarked from the plane that brings them back 1st August of Beijing, Robert Lighthizer (Commerce) and Steven Mnuchin (Treasury) admit that they have done white cabbage: the Chinese are inflexible. Trump listens to them, displeased. And drop the chopper: “Tariffs”. The meeting then lasts nearly two hours, all advisers, with the exception of protectionist Peter Navarro, formally advising a further increase in tariffs.

Trump does not stop. “Tariffs” it will be. Because Trump has always been a “tariff man”. In his mind, the trade deficits are a sign that America is being “scammed” and “ridiculed” by partners who “laugh at his back” of his “stupidity”.

Vision cantilever

From one decade to the next, the words are exactly the same. In 2011, he details what he would say in Beijing if he was elected president: “Listen, son of p …, we will tax you at 25%! Twelve years ago, about Japan: “We have a deficit of 100 billion dollars, they do the wrong thing, we do not trade with them anymore – we win at the seams. It's easy. Once installed at the White House, he repeats: “Trade wars are good and easy to win. For the real estate developer, in commercial relations there is only winner and loser, and the worst failure is to “get scammed”. Some even go back to his childhood to explain this obsession, the resentment he has long had to be ignored or taken seriously. It does not matter if his vision is at odds with the economic reality.

Bill: Berlin Mietendeckel also takes into account the size of the apartment

Tenants in large apartments may only partially benefit from the planned Berlin Mietenteckel.

According to the bill, it is also examined in applications for rent reduction, whether the living space is appropriate, said the Senate Department for Urban Development of the German Press Agency. The rent is then lowered only for the appropriate square footage, as a spokeswoman explained.

How much is that, according to the Berlin Housing Act. It staggered as follows: 50 square meters for a one-person household, 65 for two persons, 80 for three persons and 90 for four. For each additional household member twelve square meters are added.

Senator Katrin Lompscher (left) wants to publish the draft for the “Law on Rent Restrictions in Housing in Berlin (Berliner MietWoG)” on Monday. Who spends more than 30 percent of the household income for the rent, should be able to apply for a reduction in the district office. Depending on the construction age, maximum rents of € 5.95 to € 9.80 net per square meter are planned. Up to these values, rent increases should only be possible according to the inflation rate.

The Senate wants to resolve the draft in mid-October, before associations are heard. The law is to apply for the next five years.

The new maximum rents would then also apply to furnished apartments, as the Senate Administration made it clear. For a long time, the Berlin tenants' association has been criticizing landlords for overriding the rental price brake through furniture surcharges. However, market observers also see rising demand from commuters as a reason for the high number of corresponding advertisements. Among the providers of furnished apartments in Berlin also belongs to the state-owned Berlinovo. Apartments are not affected by the Mietendeckel.

“There is no Ebola here in Congo, everyone knows that”

Reports with false information

Again a setback for the mission that this Ebola epidemic is not yet under control a year after the outbreak. Even though there are now several well-functioning Ebola vaccines and medicines, the epidemic spread at an accelerated rate last week.

The death toll has now risen above 2000 and more than 3000 cases of infection have been registered. Yet there are plenty of people who claim that there is no ebola at all in Congo. This is also the case in Kasindi, a place on the border of Congo with Uganda, where two new cases have just been discovered.

“There is no Ebola, everyone knows that. And you know that too, if you're honest,” says a man. According to another, doctors are primarily interested in money. “That's why they send all kinds of reports to the white people with false information. Then they examine a corpse and have already decided that it is ebola, while it is not.”

Climate: first event with Greta Thunberg in New York

Two days after her arrival in the United States, young Swede Greta Thunberg participated on Friday in her first New York climate event alongside several hundred young people, before continuing with an impromptu meeting with the president of the UN General Assembly.

The 16-year-old Swede, who crossed the Atlantic on a sailing boat for 15 days to attend the UN climate summit on 23 September, remained discreet during the demonstration, which lasted about two hours in front of the headquarters of the UN, on the edge of the East River in Manhattan.

The one that pushed hundreds of thousands of young Europeans to parade every Friday under the rallying cry #FridaysforFuture remained silent, leaving other teenagers or students to call for action in the face of the climate emergency, some directly targeting climate change. skepticism of the Trump government.

“Stop denying that the Earth is dying!”, “Strike with us!”, Or “We can not stop, a better world is possible!”, Especially chanted the young people present, some of whom were not 10 years old.

Many said they came at least partly to see the young Swede, whose face and braids are now recognizable worldwide.

“When we knew that Greta would be there, we knew we could not miss it, she is our inspiration!” Said excited 17-year-old Atara Saunders, organizer of Friday's events at her high school in the Philadelphia.

– “impromptu” meeting –

Gabriel Kunin, a 13-year-old New Yorker, told him he was attending his first climate event.

Greta Thunberg arrives at the UN headquarters in Manhattan, where she was invited to an impromptu meeting with the President of the General Assembly, Maria Fernanda Espinosa (AFP - Bryan R. Smith)

Greta Thunberg arrives at the UN headquarters in Manhattan, where she was invited to an impromptu meeting with the President of the General Assembly, Maria Fernanda Espinosa (AFP – Bryan R. Smith)

“I knew there would be celebrities” like Greta, he said.

Greta Thunberg then took her first steps inside the imposing UN building, where the President of the General Assembly, Ecuadorian Maria Fernanda Espinosa, invited her to an “impromptu” meeting, organized “at the last minute,” according to a spokesman.

For ten minutes, the young Swede, accompanied by two other climate activists, spoke of the need to see “acts and not words” from world leaders, told AFP say, Mark Seddon.

“Welcome to UN Greta Thunberg and climate activists,” tweeted the president. “Your determination to act for the climate is shaking the world and we are with you to hold leaders to account. + Science, not silence +”.

The first Friday of Greta Thunberg in New York was worth a test ball before the planned giant parade in front of the UN on September 20, which is expected to put pressure on world leaders to attend the UN climate summit on Thursday. September 23rd.

The young Swede – who also counts his detractors, some deeming manipulated – has planned to participate, before attending the summit itself.

Trump launches a command of space

Donald Trump wants to be ready in case of star wars: the US president on Thursday launched a military command of space, which will be responsible for ensuring the dominance of the United States, threatened by China and Russia, on this new war ground.

“This is a historic moment, a historic day, that recognizes that space is at the center of America's national security and defense,” the president said at a ceremony in Washington.

This command, dubbed “Spacecom”, “will ensure that US space domination is never questioned or threatened because we know that the best way to prevent conflict is to prepare for victory.” “, he added.

For Mr. Trump, it is about fighting the enemies of the United States who are attacking the “American satellites that are so important for operations on the battlefields and for our lifestyle”.

The “Spacecom” becomes the 11th military command of the Pentagon, equivalent for example to Centcom, in charge of the American military operations in the Middle East.

After the Spacecom, Mr. Trump confirmed the next creation of a “Space Force” that will become a sixth branch of the US Army, alongside the Army, the US Navy, the US Air Force, the Marine Corps and the Coast Guard.

The “Force” will be formed within the Air Force, which has been overseeing military operations in space since the 1950s.

The mission of Spacecom is multiple: deter, defend, offer an effective space combat capability and train fighters for war in space, according to the Pentagon.

“Stay in the lead”

The aim is to secure the supremacy of the United States on this new battlefield, threatened by China and Russia, which have developed their technological capabilities.

“We are the best of the world in space today, but our level of superiority is narrowing, we want to move fast and stay ahead,” said General John Raymond, who will lead Spacecom, at a press conference. -press before the official announcement.

The threats range from scrambling communications and GPS satellites to striking a surface-to-air missile against a satellite “as China did in 2007,” said the Air Force general.

Spacecom will work with Washington's traditional allies: the “Five Eyes” group of US, New Zealand, British, Canadian and Australian intelligence services, as well as with Germany, Japan and France. has already announced the forthcoming creation of a command dedicated to space.

“Historically, we did not need allies in outer space, which was a secondary domain, and it became very important today,” he said.

“Space will not be our Achilles heel,” added Steve Kitay, Deputy Minister of Defense for Space Affairs.

Asked about possible research on alien life, Mr. Kitay said that “Spacecom and the Force of space focus on life on Earth.”

In March 2018, Mr Trump had decided on the idea of ​​this Space Force, but the House of Representatives had voted a year ago to provide for the creation of a “Space Corps”.

The then Minister of Defense, Jim Mattis, publicly opposed it, considering a sixth military branch too expensive and unnecessary. US Air Force Chief Heather Wilson also voiced opposition to the idea.

In addition, the future Space Force may face opposition from Congress to approve its funding, estimated at $ 8 billion by the White House.

(with AFP)

Hong Kong bans demonstration – known democracy activists arrested

Shortly before a banned mass demonstration, well-known Hong Kong democracy activists have been arrested. Joshua Wong was buried in a civilian vehicle on the street at about 7.30 am, his Demosisto party said on Twitter. Agnes Chow was arrested at home. Previously, the police had banned a planned Saturday for large demonstration of the democracy movement against the peking loyalty of the Chinese Special Administrative Region.

“Participation in a forbidden assembly”

“We still do not know what they are accused of,” Demosisto continued. The party turned on their lawyers. The Hong Kong police confirmed the arrest of two 22-year-olds named “Wong and Chow,” accused of inciting “incitement to attend a banned assembly”.

On Thursday evening, the pro-independence activist Andy Chan was arrested at Hong Kong airport. His small independence party, with only a few dozen members, was banned last year.

China warns of escalation in Hong Kong - civil rights activists arrested

The police had written to the organizers about the ban on Saturday's mass demonstration that it was feared that participants in the demonstration wanted to commit “violent and destructive acts”. Demonstrators have recently “not only set fire and built roadblocks, but also used incendiary bombs, steel balls, stones, long spears and various self-made weapons”. After the ban, the organizers of the Civil Human Rights Front have canceled the original scheduled for Saturday protests.

In Hong Kong, there have been mass demonstrations for more democracy and a growing influence of Beijing for three months. There had been heavy violent clashes last weekend. The officers used, among other things, water cannons, for the first time since the beginning of the protests fired a police officer from a shot. Since June, more than 850 protesters have been arrested.

One country, two systems until 2047

The protesters demand, inter alia, the complete abandonment of an already stopped extradition law, which provided for transfers to mainland China, but also free elections and the resignation of Prime Minister Carrie Lam. Beijing had assured the former British Crown Colony at the 1997 takeover under the principle of “one country, two systems” until at least 2047 fundamental rights such as freedom of expression and freedom of the press.

Saturday's rally was scheduled to mark the fifth anniversary of Beijing's decision to ban political reform in Hong Kong. This decision triggered the so-called umbrella movement in 2014. Already at that time, today's 22-year-old Wong had been at the head of the 79-day protests.

Before the banned demonstration, Beijing had had its armored troop-carriers rolled through the Special Administrative Region. The video leaked by state-run Chinese media was called “annual routine rotation” by Beijing on Thursday. The videos show troop vans and trucks crossing the border between mainland China and Hong Kong. The goal was, according to a report from the state news agency Xinhua, the garrison of the Chinese armed forces in Hong Kong.

SER: Millennials less chance of permanent job and owner-occupied home

Young people between 18 and 35 years old are less likely to become independent than before. The Social and Economic Council (SER), the most important advisory body for government and parliament, warns against this in a report that will be published tomorrow.

According to the SER, millennials reach milestones later in their lives such as buying a house, starting a family and building up a pension than previous generations. “These people live a deferred life,” says SER chairman Mariëtte Hamer.

Mortgage get trickier

The procrastination behavior is partly a result of economic reality. Young people have a flex job more often than before and on average only get a permanent contract when they are 27, three years later than ten years ago. As a result, they earn less and build up less pension.

Moreover, student debt and temporary contracts make it harder for young people to get a mortgage and have to rely on expensive rental properties in the free sector. As a result, a larger part of their income goes to housing costs. On average, they leave their parental home later and buy their first home later than previous generations.

This is also due to the fact that more and more houses are being bought by investors, who then rent out the houses. This leaves fewer homes for starters and drives up prices.

As a result, the proportion of first-time buyers among home buyers was never so low: in 2018, 25 percent of all homes went to first-time buyers, in 2014 this was 47 percent. Forty percent of the young people do not expect to be able to buy a first house; five percentage points more than the average in Europe. Relatively often they indicate that this is due to a lack of suitable houses.

Generation test

Luce van Kempen, from the SER youth platform, is worried. “We see that people leave home later and later, get a permanent job, postpone things. That's not a problem for people who want to. But if you are stuck or dare not take that step. Then you will get into trouble “

Phytosanitary products: “no treatment zones”

The state will impose “non treatment areas“Where the application of plant protection products on crops will be prohibited if riparians, elected officials and farmers can not agree to jointly establish territorial” charters “spreading, warned the Minister of Agriculture Didier William on August 29, 2019.

Rules for spreading and spraying phytosanitary products to be defined

We set up departmental charters, territorial charters in which residents, farmers, elected officials, under the authority of the prefect, must agree to the areas of spreading. If they can not agree, then we will put in place what are called non-treatment areas. The Council of State asked ussaid the minister on CNews.

The minister's office said in the wake that a public consultation was going to be launched “early October for six weeks in the prefectures“Bringing together all the actors (prefect, farmers, associations, etc.) to define”the rules“spreading and spraying crop protection products on crops, with the aim of achieving a”national order“early January 2020.

There should be compulsory non-treatment zones between 1 and 5 meters around the buildings, with possible derogations in case of local charters that specify the rules locally, or special situationsThe non-treatment areas will, however, be expanded in sensitive areas, such as proximity to schools or catchments of drinking water sources Farmers with spreading or precision spraying equipment could, however, be eligible for certain derogations. “If at the end of a field, there is a wall or a hedge, there is no problem to continue to spread, even if (in the end) we want to release pesticides“said the minister.Most of the time it is not agriculture, arboriculture, viticulture that has approached the villages, it is the housing estates that have sprouted and have become established in the middle of the fieldshe noted.

Elected officials try to regulate the conditions of use of pesticides

These clarifications respond to the lively debate on the subject. The mayor of Langouët (Ille-et-Vilaine), who attempted to issue a decree prohibiting the use of pesticides within 150 meters of any construction, was retaliated by administrative justice. Other local elected officials try to regulate the conditions of use of these products. After President Emmanuel Macron who declared to support him “in his intentionsMinister of Environmental Transition Élisabeth Borne said on August 27 that a regulatory project was under consideration to establish aminimum area between spreading and dwellingsOn August 29, Christiane Lambert, president of the first agricultural union FNSEA, indicated on Twitter that the union had made proposals “pragmatic and effective“to Mrs. Borne to protect the residents.

The day before, she had regretted on Radio Classique the “buzz“done by activists”who went a bit far in demonizing farmers“.”They mean that a world without phyto is quite possible when we know very well that a world without medicine is not“she said.It is important that residents and farmers meet and talk to each other. Often misunderstandings come from the fact that they do not know each othersaid a representative of the minister's office.

Bolton asks London to toughen its tone against Iran and

John Bolton, the US National Security Advisor, will urge Britain to be more steadfast in its relations with China and Iran during a visit to London on Monday, 12 and Tuesday, 13 August.

During these two days, John Bolton undoubtedly will discuss the British exit of the European Union which will probably lead to a rapprochement of London and Washington. But support from the United States will not be achieved without the British government agreeing to align its positions with those of the White House, especially on the Iranian issue.

The line of firmness defended by Trump

For the moment, London favors the European Union's approach, which advocates sticking to the 2015 agreement on the Iranian nuclear program. The seizure of a British ship by the Iranian authorities, however, could convince the British to move away from the policy of the community bloc and to approach the line of firmness advocated by President Donald Trump.

Could the United Kingdom get away from the Vienna Treaty?

According to a US government source, John Bolton should urge Prime Minister Boris Johnson to decide, like the US president before him, to evade the treaty negotiated in Vienna four years ago. Donald Trump's advisor should also urge his British counterparts to dispense with the services of Chinese telecom equipment maker Huawei, considered in the United States as a threat to national security and a source of diplomatic tension between Washington and Beijing .

While it was still headed by Theresa May, the UK government had decided to grant Huawei limited access to 5G technology contracts, but John Bolton hopes to find a closer hearing with Boris Johnson. John Bolton intends to demonstrate with the latter that Huawei is an instrument in the hands of the Chinese government that could use it to monitor British telecommunications.

(With Reuters)